Doctors can learn a great deal about a patient by checking just a few vital signs. What if a nation has vital signs too? Marriage, fertility, and the number of children growing up with married parents may tell us something important about the health and future of a society. The latest numbers reveal some encouraging signs, some troubling ones—and raise an important question: What does it really take to create a culture where families flourish?
For the health of families and the future of our nations,
Wendy Wixom, President
United Families International
The 2026 Landscape of Marriage, Fertility, and Family Stability in the United States
The 2026 Family Structure Index (FSI), published by the Institute for Family Studies and the Center for Christian Virtue, offers a snapshot of American family well-being through three key measures: the share of adults ages 25 to 54 who are married, the share of teenagers living with married parents, and the total fertility rate. Together, these indicators capture the state of marriage, family stability, and fertility across the country.
The study found that marriage and fertility have declined in most states over the past decade. Since 2000, the national FSI score has fallen from 100 to 87.3. This year, Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota top the index, while Vermont, Nevada, Louisiana, Rhode Island, and New Mexico sit at the bottom.
South Carolina improved the most over the past decade, rising from 45th in 2014 to 28th in 2024, largely because more of its prime-age adults married: the share of South Carolinians ages 25 to 54 who were married grew from 52.6% to 55.1%. Hawaii, by contrast, saw the steepest drop in marriage over the same period, from 56.1% to 52.1%, and fell 16 places in the overall FSI, from 10th to 26th.
Stronger Families, More Successful Kids
Despite these broader declines, the share of American children raised by married parents has leveled off. According to the data, 57% of prime-age adults (ages 25–54) are married, and 63% of teenagers currently live with married parents.
This matters because research has consistently tied family structure to a range of social and economic outcomes. According to the FSI, states with more married-parent families tend to have lower child poverty, better educational outcomes, less crime, and stronger economies. States where more children grow up in single-parent households, by contrast, tend to face greater long-term social and economic challenges.
In Ohio, for example, children raised by single mothers face a markedly higher poverty rate than children raised by married parents. Schools are also less likely to contact parents in intact families about behavioral or learning problems.
Marriage and family formation also shape economic outcomes. According to studies, adults who marry before having children have a 97% chance of avoiding poverty, an 86% chance of reaching the middle class or higher, and are four times more likely to live in an intact family in their 30s.
The FSI also finds that states with more college-educated adults tend to have more teenagers living with married parents. One possible explanation is that education helps parents secure better-paying, more stable jobs, which in turn supports family stability. The benefits go beyond economics. The research suggests that children who grow up outside a married family are less likely to report being happy, and that communities with more stable families tend to see less crime and greater economic mobility.
A National and International Perspective
The FSI also shows how marriage, fertility, and family stability vary from state to state. Marriage and family stability have generally declined more sharply in blue states, while red states have fared comparatively better on several measures, including marriage and fertility. Blue states, for example, had approximately 600,000 fewer children in 2024 than in 2019. Migration may explain part of this shift, as more families with children move from blue states to red states.
Interestingly, the study also links religiosity and fertility: states with more religious adults tend to have higher fertility rates. Still, the pattern is far from uniform. Louisiana, for example, ranks third from the bottom of the index, while Minnesota ranks ninth.
Just as family patterns vary within the United States, family stability varies considerably across countries, shaped by each society’s history and culture. In some cases, current demographic trends reflect the lasting effects of anti-natalist policies that have proven difficult to reverse.
South Korea offers a striking example. Beginning in the 1960s, the government ran an extensive national family planning program to slow population growth and encourage smaller families, including campaigns promoting two-child policies. Trying to correct course, the country has spent more than $210 billion since 2006 on housing subsidies, paid parental leave, childcare assistance, and cash payments for births. Despite these efforts, its fertility rate kept falling for nearly two decades, reaching 0.72 children per woman in 2023, the lowest rate any country had ever recorded at the time.
Similarly, births in Singapore fell below 30,000 in 2025. According to Singapore’s Department of Statistics, the main driver is not lower fertility among married couples but a steady rise in the share of women who remain unmarried. In other words, fewer women are marrying, rather than married women having fewer children. Meanwhile, marriages in Japan rose for the second consecutive year in 2025, yet fertility within marriage has steadily declined. Experts suggest the causes are not purely financial; long working hours, for example, also play a part.
Israel, by contrast, stands out as a developed country with a fertility rate approaching three children per woman. Studies suggest that a strong social and religious consensus around the value of family partly explains this. Israel’s experience shows that strong family norms can persist, and even grow stronger, in a wealthy, highly educated society where many women work.
Faith, Family, and Freedom
On the one hand, as the study shows, declining marriage and rising single parenthood go hand in hand with long-term social and economic challenges. States with more expensive housing, for instance, tend to have lower fertility rates. This suggests that policies to make housing more affordable, promote job growth, reduce taxes, strengthen law and order, and expand access to education may all help create an environment more conducive to marriage and family formation.
On the other hand, as Center for Christian Virtue President Aaron Baer argues, government programs alone can’t replace strong families. In his words, “No amount of paid family leave, childcare subsidies or social experimentation will rebuild the foundation that families provide.” If such policies were enough, he argues, states like California and New York would lead the way.
That is why churches and local communities also have an important role to play. Beyond creating favorable economic conditions, societies need to cultivate a culture in which people want to marry and have children because they see an intrinsic and transcendent value in both. In this sense, faith, family, and freedom may be the winning formula for reaching the top of any ranking.
Cristina is a Peruvian lawyer with a master’s degree in Human Rights. She combines political experience with her work as a writer and researcher, focusing on bioethics, family, religious freedom, and cultural heritage.